000			03399nam a22003853i 4500
001			EBC4968587
003			MiAaPQ
005			20191009123142.0
006			m o d |
007			cr cnu||||||||
008			191009s2010 xx o ||||0 eng d
020			_a9781282458147 _q(electronic bk.)
035			_a(MiAaPQ)EBC4968587
035			_a(Au-PeEL)EBL4968587
035			_a(CaONFJC)MIL245814
035			_a(OCoLC)741250583
040			_aMiAaPQ _beng _erda _epn _cMiAaPQ _dMiAaPQ
082	0		_a327.1072
100	1		_aLebow, Richard Ned.
245	1	0	_aForbidden Fruit.
264		1	_aPrinceton : _bPrinceton University Press, _c2010.
264		4	_c�2010.
300			_a1 online resource (345 pages)
336			_atext _btxt _2rdacontent
337			_acomputer _bc _2rdamedia
338			_aonline resource _bcr _2rdacarrier
505	0		_aCover -- Contents -- Chapter One Making Sense of the World -- Chapter Two Counterfactual Thought Experiments -- Chapter Three Franz Ferdinand Found Alive: World War I Unnecessary -- Chapter Four Leadership and the End of the Cold War: Did It Have to End This Way? -- Coauthored with George W. Breslauer Part Three Chapter Five Scholars and Causation 1 -- Coauthored with Philip E. Tetlock Chapter Six Scholars and Causation 2 -- Appendix Experiment 4, Instrument 1: Unmaking American Tragedies -- Chapter Seven If Mozart Had Died at Your Age: Psycho-logic versus Statistical Inference -- Chapter Eight Heil to the Chief: Sinclair Lewis, Philip Roth, and Fascism -- Conclusions -- Notes -- Index.
520			_aCould World War I have been averted if Franz Ferdinand and his wife hadn't been murdered by Serbian nationalists in 1914? What if Ronald Reagan had been killed by Hinckley's bullet? Would the Cold War have ended as it did? In Forbidden Fruit, Richard Ned Lebow develops protocols for conducting robust counterfactual thought experiments and uses them to probe the causes and contingency of transformative international developments like World War I and the end of the Cold War. He uses experiments, surveys, and a short story to explore why policymakers, historians, and international relations scholars are so resistant to the contingency and indeterminism inherent in open-ended, nonlinear systems. Most controversially, Lebow argues that the difference between counterfactual and so-called factual arguments is misleading, as both can be evidence-rich and logically persuasive. A must-read for social scientists, Forbidden Fruit also examines the binary between fact and fiction and the use of counterfactuals in fictional works like Philip Roth's The Plot Against America to understand complex causation and its implications for who we are and what we think makes the social world work.
588			_aDescription based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.
590			_aElectronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2019. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.
655		4	_aElectronic books.
776	0	8	_iPrint version: _aLebow, Richard Ned _tForbidden Fruit: Counterfactuals And International Relations _dPrinceton : Princeton University Press,c2010
797	2		_aProQuest (Firm)
856	4	0	_uhttp://ezproxy01.ny.edu.hk:2048/login?url=https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/ircp3g4/detail.action?docID=4968587 _zClick to View
999			_c36464 _d36464